Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-3 (section)

==== Summary of the likelihood of increases/decreases in precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P–E) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations considering all scenarios and a representative subset of 14 climate models (one from each modelling centre). ====

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Panel plots show the uncertainty distribution of the sensitivity of P–E to global temperature change, averaged for most IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risk of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) regions (see Figure 3.2) outlined in the map (from Greve et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r159|159]]</sup> .

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The findings from the analysis for the mean response by Greve et al. (2018) <sup>[[#fn:r160|160]]</sup> are qualitatively consistent with results from Wartenburger et al. (2017) <sup>[[#fn:r161|161]]</sup> , who used an ESR (Section 3.2) rather than a pattern scaling approach for a range of drought and dryness indices. They are also consistent with a study by Lehner et al. (2017) <sup>[[#fn:r162|162]]</sup> , who assessed changes in droughts based on soil moisture changes and the Palmer-Drought Severity Index. Notably, these two publications do not provide a specific assessment of changes in the tails of the drought and dryness distribution. The conclusions of Lehner et al. (2017) <sup>[[#fn:r163|163]]</sup> are that (i) ‘risks of consecutive drought years show little change in the US Southwest and Central Plains, but robust increases in Europe and the Mediterranean’, and that (ii) ‘limiting warming to 1.5°C may have benefits for future drought risk, but such benefits are regional, and in some cases highly uncertain’.

Figure 3.13 features projected changes in CDD as a function of global temperature increase, using a similar approach as for Figures 3.5 (based on Wartenburger et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r164|164]]</sup> . The figure also include results from the HAPPI experiment (Mitchell et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r165|165]]</sup> . Again, the CMIP5-based ESR estimates and the results of the HAPPI experiment agree well. Note that the responses vary widely among the considered regions.

Similar to Figures 3.8 and 3.11, Figure 3.14 features an objective identification of ‘hotspots’ / key risks in dryness indices subdivided by region, based on the approach by Wartenburger et al. (2017) <sup>[[#fn:r166|166]]</sup> . This analysis reveals the following hotspots of drying (i.e. increases in CDD and/or decreases in P–E, soil moisture anomalies (SMA) and 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI12), with at least one of the indices displaying statistically significant drying): the Mediterranean region (MED; including southern Europe, northern Africa, and the Near East), northeastern Brazil (NEB) and southern Africa.

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====== Figure 3.13 ======

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