Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-4 (section)

== 4.3.4 Industrial Systems Transitions ==

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Industry consumes about one-third of global final energy and contributes, directly and indirectly, about one-third of global GHG emissions (IPCC, 2014b) <sup>[[#fn:r412|412]]</sup> . If the increase in global mean temperature is to remain under 1.5°C, modelling indicates that industry cannot emit more than 2 GtCO <sub>2</sub> in 2050, corresponding to a reduction of between 67 and 91% (interquartile range) in GHG emissions compared to 2010 (see Chapter 2, Figures 2.20 and 2.21 and Table 4.1). Moreover, the consequences of warming of 1.5°C or more pose substantial challenges for industrial diversity. This section will first briefly discuss the limited literature on adaptation options for industry. Subsequently, new literature since AR5 on the feasibility of industrial mitigation options will be discussed.

Research assessing adaptation actions by industry indicates that only a small fraction of corporations has developed adaptation measures. Studies of adaptation in the private sector remain limited (Agrawala et al., 2011; Linnenluecke et al., 2015; Averchenkova et al., 2016; Bremer and Linnenluecke, 2016; Pauw et al., 2016a) <sup>[[#fn:r413|413]]</sup> and for 1.5°C are largely absent. This knowledge gap is particularly evident for medium-sized enterprises and in low- and middle-income nations (Surminski, 2013) <sup>[[#fn:r414|414]]</sup> .

Depending on the industrial sector, mitigation consistent with 1.5°C would mean, across industries, a reduction of final energy demand by one-third, an increase of the rate of recycling of materials and the development of a circular economy in industry (Lewandowski, 2016; Linder and Williander, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r415|415]]</sup> , the substitution of materials in high-carbon products with those made up of renewable materials (e.g., wood instead of steel or cement in the construction sector, natural textile fibres instead of plastics), and a range of deep emission reduction options, including use of bio-based feedstocks, low-emission heat sources, electrification of production processes, and/or capture and storage of all CO <sub>2</sub> emissions by 2050 (Åhman et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r416|416]]</sup> . Some of the choices for mitigation options and routes for GHG-intensive industry are discrete and potentially subject to path dependency: if an industry goes one way (e.g., in keeping existing processes), it will be harder to transition to process change (e.g., electrification) (Bataille et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r417|417]]</sup> . In the context of rising demand for construction, an increasing share of industrial production may be based in developing countries (N. Li et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r418|418]]</sup> , where current efficiencies may be lower than in developed countries, and technical and institutional feasibility may differ (Ma et al., 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r419|419]]</sup> .

Except for energy efficiency, costs of disruptive change associated with hydrogen- or electricity-based production, bio-based feedstocks and carbon dioxide capture, (utilization) and storage (CC(U)S) for trade-sensitive industrial sectors (in particular the iron and steel, petrochemical and refining industries) make policy action by individual countries challenging because of competitiveness concerns (Åhman et al., 2016; Nabernegg et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r420|420]]</sup> .

Table 4.3 provides an overview of applicable mitigation options for key industrial sectors.

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====== Table 4.3 ======

Overview of different mitigation options potentially consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C and applicable to main industrial sectors, including examples of application (Napp et al., 2014; Boulamanti and Moya, 2017; Wesseling et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r421|421]]</sup> .

{| class="wikitable"
|-
| '''Industrial mitigation option'''
| '''Iron/Steel'''
| '''Cement'''
| '''Refineries and'''<br />
'''Petrochemicals'''
| '''Chemicals'''
|-
| Process and Energy Efficiency
| colspan="4"| Can make a difference of between 10% and 50%, depending on the plant. Relevant but not enough for 1.5°C
|-
| Bio-based
| Coke can be made from biomass<br />
instead of coal
| Partial (only energy-related<br />
emissions)
| colspan="2"| Biomass can replace fossil feedstocks
|-
| Circularity &amp; Substitution
| colspan="2"| More recycling and replacement by low-emission materials,
including alternative chemistries for cement

| colspan="2"| Limited potential
|-
| Electrification &amp; Hydrogen
| Direct reduction with hydrogen.<br />
Heat generation through electricity
| Partial (only electrified heat<br />
generation)
| colspan="2"| Electrified heat and hydrogen generation
|-
| Carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage
| colspan="2"| Possible for process emissions and energy. Reduces emissions by 80–95%, and net emissions can become negative when combined with biofuel
| colspan="2"| Can be applied to energy emissions and different stacks but not on<br />
emissions of products in the use phase (e.g., gasoline)
|}

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