Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-2 (section)

== 2.3.1.3 Policy assumptions in 1.5°C pathways ==

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Besides assumptions related to socio-economic drivers and mitigation technology, scenarios are also subject to assumptions about the mitigation policies that can be put in place. Mitigation policies can either be applied immediately in scenarios or follow staged or delayed approaches. Policies can span many sectors (e.g., economy-wide carbon pricing), or policies can be applicable to specific sectors only (like the energy sector) with other sectors (e.g., the agricultural or the land-use sector) treated differently. These variations can have an important impact on the ability of models to generate scenarios compatible with stringent climate targets like 1.5°C (Luderer et al., 2013; Rogelj et al., 2013b; Bertram et al., 2015b; Kriegler et al., 2018a; Michaelowa et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r181|181]]</sup> . In the scenario ensemble available to this assessment, several variations of near-term mitigation policy implementation can be found: immediate and cross-sectoral global cooperation from 2020 onward towards a global climate objective, a phase-in of globally coordinated mitigation policy from 2020 to 2040, and a more short-term oriented and regionally diverse global mitigation policy, following NDCs until 2030 (Kriegler et al., 2018a; Luderer et al., 2018; McCollum et al., 2018; Rogelj et al., 2018; Strefler et al., 2018b) <sup>[[#fn:r182|182]]</sup> . For example, the above-mentioned SSP quantifications assume regionally scattered mitigation policies until 2020, and vary in global convergence thereafter (Kriegler et al., 2014a; Riahi et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r183|183]]</sup> . The impact of near-term policy choices on 1.5°C-consistent pathways is discussed in Section 2.3.5. The literature has also explored 1.5°C-consistent pathways that build on a portfolio of policy approaches until 2030, including the combination of regulatory policies and carbon pricing (Kriegler et al., 2018a) <sup>[[#fn:r184|184]]</sup> , and a variety of ancillary policies to safeguard other sustainable development goals (Bertram et al., 2018; van Vuuren et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r185|185]]</sup> . A further discussion of policy implications of 1.5°C-consistent pathways is provided in Section 2.5.1, while a general discussion of policies and options to strengthen action are subject of Chapter 4, Section 4.4.

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