Editing Test:SRCCL/Chapter-1 (section)

==== Description of the principal methods used in land and climate futures analysis. ====

{| class="wikitable"
|-

Futures method

Description and subtypes

Application domain

Time horizon

Examples in this assessment

|-

Exploratory scenarios.

Trajectories of change in system components from the present to contrasting, alterna- tive futures based on plausible and internally consistent assumptions about the underlying drivers of change

Long-term projections quantified with models

Climate system, land system and other components of the environment (e.g., biodiversity, ecosystem function- ing, water resources and quality), for example the SSPs

10–100 years

2.3, 2.6.2, 5.2.3, 6.1.4, 6.4.4, 7.2

|-

Business-as-usual scenarios

(including ‘outlooks’)

A continuation into the future of current trends<br />
in key drivers to explore the consequences of these in the near term

5–10 years, 20–30 years for outlooks

1.2.1, 2.6.2, 5.3.4, 6.1.4

|-

Policy and planning scenarios

(including business planning)

Ex ante analysis of the consequences of alternative policies or decisions based on known policy options or already implemented policy and planning measures

5–30 years

2.6.3, 5.5.2, 5.6.2, 6.4.4

|-

Stylised scenarios (with single and multiple options)

Afforestation/reforestation areas, bioenergy areas, protected areas for conservation, consumption patterns (e.g., diets, food waste)

10–100 years

2.6.1, 5.5.1, 5.5.2, 5.6.1, 5.6.2, 6.4.4, 7.2

|-

Shock scenarios (high impact single events)

Food supply chain collapses, cyberattacks, pandemic diseases (humans, crops and livestock)

Near-term events<br />
(up to 10 years) leading to long-term impacts (10–100 years)

5.8.1

|-

Conditional probabilistic futures

ascribe probabilities to uncertain drivers that are conditional on scenario assumptions

Where some knowledge is known about driver uncertainties, for example, population, economic growth, land-use change

10–100 years

1.2

|-

Normative scenarios.

Desired futures or outcomes that are aspirational and how to achieve them

Visions, goal-seeking or target-seeking scenarios

Environmental quality, societal development, human well-being, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs,) 1.5°C scenarios

5–10 years to 10–100 years

2.6.2, 6.4.4, 7.2, 5.5.2

|-

Pathways as alternative sets<br />
of choices, actions or behaviours that lead to a future vision<br />
(goal or target)

Socio-economic systems, governance and policy actions

5–10 years to 10–100 years

5.5.2, 6.4.4, 7.2

|}

<div id="section-1-2-2-2-nature-and-scope-of-uncertainties-related-to-land-use-block-3"></div>

<span id="cross-chapter-box-figure-1"></span>
====== Cross-Chapter-Box-Figure-1 ======

<span id="interactions-between-land-and-climate-system-components-and-models-in-scenario-analysis.-the-blue-text-describes-selected-model-inputs-and-outputs."></span>