Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-3 (section)

====== Cross-Chapter Box 8, Table 1 ======

Different worlds resulting from 1.5°C and 2°C mitigation (prospective) pathways, including 66% (probable) best-case outcome, and 5% worst-case outcome, based on Chapter 2 scenarios and Chapter 3 assessments of changes in regional climate. Note that the pathway characteristics estimates are based on computations with the MAGICC model (Meinshausen et al., 2011) consistent with the set-up used in AR5 WGIII (Clarke et al., 2014), but are uncertain and will be subject to updates and adjust-ments (see Chapter 2 for details). Updated from (Seneviratne et al. (2018b).

{| class="wikitable"
|-
!
! B1.5_LOS (below 1.5°C with low overshoot) with 2/3 ´probable best-case outcome´ <sup>a</sup>
! B1.5_LOS (below 1.5°C<br />
with low overshoot)<br />
with 1/20 ´worst-case<br />
outcome´ <sup>b</sup>
! L20 (lower than 2°C) with 2/3 ´probable best-case outcome´ <sup>a</sup>
! L20 (lower than 2°C)<br />
with 1/20 ´worst-case<br />
outcome´ <sup>b</sup>
|-
| rowspan="6"| General characteristics of pathway
| Overshoot &gt; 1.5°C in 21st century <sup>c</sup>
| Yes (51/51)
| Yes (72/72)
|-
| Overshoot &gt; 2°C in 21st century
| No (0/51)
| Yes (37/51)
| No (72/72)
| Yes (72/72)
|-
| Cumulative CO <sub>2</sub> emissions up to peak<br />
warming (relative to 2016) <sup>d</sup> [GtCO <sub>2</sub> ]
| 610–760
| 590–750
| 1150–1460
| 1130–1470
|-
| Cumulative CO <sub>2</sub> emissions up to 2100 (relative to 2016) <sup>d</sup> [GtCO <sub>2</sub> ]
| colspan="2"| 170–560
| colspan="2"| 1030–1440
|-
| Global GHG emissions in 2030 <sup>d</sup> [GtCO <sub>2</sub> y <sup>-1</sup> ]
| colspan="2"| 19–23
| colspan="2"| 31–38
|-
| Years of global net zero CO <sub>2</sub> emissions <sup>d</sup>
| colspan="2"| 2055–2066
| colspan="2"| 2082–2090
|-
| rowspan="6"| Possible climate range at peak warming (regional+global)
| Global mean temperature anomaly at peak warming
| 1.7°C (1.66°C–1.72°C)
| 2.05°C (2.00°C–2.09°C)
| 2.11°C (2.05°C–2.17°C)
| 2.67°C (2.59°C–2.76°C)
|-
| Warming in the Arctic <sup>e</sup> (TNn <sup>f</sup> )
| 4.93°C (4.36, 5.52)
| 6.02°C (5.12, 6.89)
| 6.24°C (5.39, 7.21)
| 7.69°C (6.69, 8.93)
|-
| Warming in Central North America <sup>e</sup> (TXx <sup>g</sup> )
| 2.65°C (1.92, 3.15)
| 3.11°C (2.37, 3.63)
| 3.18°C (2.50, 3.71)
| 4.06°C (3.35, 4.63)
|-
| Warming in Amazon region <sup>e</sup> (TXx)
| 2.55°C (2.23, 2.83)
| 3.07°C (2.74, 3.46)
| 3.16°C (2.84, 3.57)
| 4.05°C (3.62, 4.46)
|-
| Drying in the Mediterranean region <sup>e,h</sup>
| –1.11 (–2.24, –0.41)
| –1.28 (–2.44, –0.51)
| –1.38 (–2.58, –0.53)
| –1.56 (–3.19, –0.67)
|-
| Increase in heavy precipitation events <sup>e</sup> in Southern Asia <sup>i</sup>
| 9.94% (6.76, 14.00)
| 11.94% (7.52, 18.86)
| 12.68% (7.71, 22.39)
| 19.67% (11.56, 27.24)
|-
| rowspan="6"| Possible climate range in 2100 (regional+global)
| Global mean temperature warming in 2100
| 1.46°C (1.41°C–1.51°C)
| 1.87°C (1.81°C–1.94°C)
| 2.06°C (1.99°C–2.15°C)
| 2.66°C (2.56°C–2.76°C)
|-
| Warming in the Arctic <sup>j</sup> (TNn)
| 4.28°C (3.71, 4.77)
| 5.50°C (4.74, 6.21)
| 6.08°C (5.20, 6.94)
| 7.63°C (6.66, 8.90)
|-
| Warming in Central North America <sup>j</sup> (TXx)
| 2.31°C (1.56, 2.66)
| 2.83°C (2.03, 3.49)
| 3.12°C (2.38, 3.67)
| 4.06°C (3.33, 4.59)
|-
| Warming in Amazon region <sup>j</sup> (TXx)
| 2.22°C (2.00, 2.45)
| 2.76°C (2.50, 3.07)
| 3.10°C (2.75, 3.49)
| 4.03°C (3.62, 4.45)
|-
| Drying in the Mediterranean region <sup>j</sup>
| –0.95 (–1.98, –0.30)
| –1.10 (–2.17, –0.51)
| –1.26 (–2.43, –0.52)
| –1.55 (–3.17, –0.67)
|-
| Increase in heavy precipitation events<br />
in Southern Asia <sup>j</sup>
| 8.38% (4.63, 12.68)
| 10.34% (6.64, 16.07)
| 12.02% (7.41, 19.62)
| 19.72% (11.34, 26.95)
|}

Notes:

# 66th percentile for global temperature (that is, 66% likelihood of being at or below values)
# 95th percentile for global temperature (that is, 5% likelihood of being at or above values)
# All 1.5°C scenarios include a substantial probability of overshooting above 1.5°C global warming before returning to 1.5°C.
# Interquartile range (25th percentile, q25, and 75th percentile, q75)
# The regional projections in these rows provide the median and the range [q25, q75] associated with the median global temperature outcomes of the considered mitigation scenarios at peak warming.
# TNn: Annual minimum night-time temperature
# TXx: Annual maximum day-time temperature
# Indicates drying of soil moisture expressed in units of standard deviations of pre-industrial climate (1861–1880) variability (where −1 is dry; −2 is severely dry; and −3 is very severely dry);
# Rx5day: the annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation.
# As for footnote e, but for the regional responses associated with the median global temperature outcomes of the considered mitigation scenarios in 2100

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