Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-3 (section)

== 3.5.4.8 Tropics ==

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Worldwide, the largest increases in the number of hot days are projected to occur in the tropics (Figure 3.7). Moreover, the largest differences in the number of hot days for 1.5°C versus 2°C of global warming are projected to occur in the tropics (Mahlstein et al., 2011) <sup>[[#fn:r1213|1213]]</sup> . In tropical Africa, increases in the number of hot nights, as well as longer and more frequent heatwaves, are projected under 1.5°C of global warming, with further increases expected under 2°C of global warming (Weber et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1214|1214]]</sup> . Impact studies for major tropical cereals reveal that yields of maize and wheat begin to decline with 1°C to 2°C of local warming in the tropics. Schleussner et al. (2016b) <sup>[[#fn:r1215|1215]]</sup> project that constraining warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C would avoid significant risks of tropical crop yield declines in West Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central and South America. There is ''limited evidence'' and thus ''low confidence'' that these changes may result in significant population displacement from the tropics to the subtropics (e.g., Hsiang and Sobel, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r1216|1216]]</sup> .

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