Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-1 (section)

==== Observed increase in global average surface temperature in various datasets. Numbers in square brackets correspond to 5–95% uncertainty ranges from individual datasets, encompassing known sources of observational uncertainty only. ====

{| class="wikitable"
|-
| '''Diagnostic / dataset'''
| '''1850–1900 to (1)<br />
''' '''2006–2015'''
| '''1850–1900 to (2)<br />
''' '''1986–2005'''
| '''1986–2005 to (3)<br />
''' '''2006–2015'''
| '''1850–1900 to (4)<br />
''' '''1981–2010'''
| '''1850–1900 to (5)<br />
''' '''1998–2017'''
| '''Trend (6)<br />
''' '''1880–2012'''
| '''Trend (6)<br />
''' '''1880–2015'''
|-
| '''HadCRUT4.6'''
| 0.84
[0.79–0.89]

| 0.60
[0.57–0.66]

| 0.22
[0.21–0.23]

| 0.62
[0.58–0.67]

| 0.83
[0.78–0.88]

| 0.83
[0.77–0.90]

| 0.88
[0.83–0.95]

|-
| '''NOAAGlobalTemp (7)'''
| 0.86
| 0.62
| 0.22
| 0.63
| 0.85
| 0.91
|-
| '''GISTEMP (7)'''
| 0.89
| 0.65
| 0.23
| 0.66
| 0.88
| 0.89
| 0.94
|-
| '''Cowtan-Way'''
| 0.91
[0.85–0.99]

| 0.65
[0.60–0.72]

| 0.26
[0.25–0.27]

| 0.65
[0.60–0.72]

| 0.88
[0.82–0.96]

| 0.88
[0.79–0.98]

| 0.93
[0.85–1.03]

|-
| '''Average (8)'''
| '''0.87'''
| 0.63
| 0.23
| 0.64
| 0.86
| 0.92
|-
| '''Berkeley (9)'''
| 0.98
| 0.73
| 0.25
| 0.73
| 0.97
| 1.02
|-
| '''JMA (9)'''
| 0.82
| 0.59
| 0.17
| 0.60
| 0.81
| 0.82
| 0.87
|-
| '''ERA-Interim'''
| N/A
| 0.26
| N/A
|-
| '''JRA-55'''
| N/A
| 0.23
| N/A
|-
| '''CMIP5 global SAT (10)'''
| 0.99
[0.65–1.37]

| 0.62
[0.38–0.94]

| 0.38
[0.24–0.62]

| 0.62
[0.34–0.93]

| 0.89
[0.62–1.29]

| 0.81
[0.58–1.31]

| 0.86
[0.63–1.39]

|-
| '''CMIP5 SAT/SST blend—masked'''
| 0.86
[0.54–1.18]

| 0.50
[0.31–0.79]

| 0.34
[0.19–0.54]

| 0.48
[0.26–0.79]

| 0.75
[0.52–1.11]

| 0.68
[0.45–1.08]

| 0.74
[0.51–1.14]

|}

Notes:

# Most recent reference period used in this report.
# Most recent reference period used in AR5.
# Difference between recent reference periods.
# Current WMO standard reference periods.
# Most recent 20-year period.
# Linear trends estimated by a straight-line fit, expressed in degrees yr <sup>−1</sup> multiplied by 133 or 135 years respectively, with uncertainty ranges incorporating observational uncertainty only.
# To estimate changes in the NOAAGlobalTemp and GISTEMP datasets relative to the 1850–1900 reference period, warming is computed relative to 1850–1900 using the HadCRUT4.6 dataset and scaled by the ratio of the linear trend 1880–2015 in the NOAAGlobalTemp or GISTEMP dataset with the corresponding linear trend computed from HadCRUT4.
# Average of diagnostics derived – see (7) – from four peer-reviewed global datasets, HadCRUT4.6, NOAA, GISTEMP &amp; Cowtan-Way. Note that differences between averages may not coincide with average differences because of rounding.
# No peer-reviewed publication available for these global combined land–sea datasets.
# CMIP5 changes estimated relative to 1861–80 plus 0.02°C for the offset in HadCRUT4.6 from 1850–1900. CMIP5 values are the mean of the RCP8.5 ensemble, with 5–95% ensemble range. They are included to illustrate the difference between a complete global surface air temperature record (SAT) and a blended surface air and sea surface temperature (SST) record accounting for incomplete coverage (masked), following Richardson et al. (2016) <sup>[[#fn:r88|88]]</sup> . Note that 1986–2005 temperatures in CMIP5 appear to have been depressed more than observed temperatures by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo.

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