Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-3 (section)

== 3.4.9.3 Transportation ==

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Road, air, rail, shipping and pipeline transportation can be impacted directly or indirectly by weather and climate, including increases in precipitation and temperature; extreme weather events (flooding and storms); SLR; and incidence of freeze–thaw cycles (Arent et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r1067|1067]]</sup> . Much of the published research on the risks of climate change for the transportation sector has been qualitative.

The limited new research since AR5 supports the notion that increases in global temperatures will impact the transportation sector. Warming is projected to result in increased numbers of days of ice-free navigation and a longer shipping season in cold regions, thus affecting shipping and reducing transportation costs (Arent et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r1068|1068]]</sup> . In the North Sea Route, large-scale commercial shipping might not be possible until 2030 for bulk shipping and until 2050 for container shipping under RCP8.5. A 0.05% increase in mean temperature is projected from an increase in short-lived pollutants, as well as elevated CO <sub>2</sub> and non-CO <sub>2</sub> emissions, associated with additional economic growth enabled by the North Sea Route. (Yumashev et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r1069|1069]]</sup> . Open water vessel transit has the potential to double by mid-century, with a two to four month longer season (Melia et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r1070|1070]]</sup> .

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