Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-4 (section)

== Box 4.9 Figure 1 Emerging Cities and ‘Peak Car Use’: Evidence of Decoupling in Beijing ==

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The phenomenon of ‘peak car use’, or reductions in per capita car use, provides hope for continuing reductions in greenhouse gases from oil consumption (Millard-Ball and Schipper, 2011; Newman and Kenworthy, 2011; Goodwin and Van Dender, 2013) <sup>[[#fn:r1353|1353]]</sup> . The phenomenon has been mostly associated with developed cities apart from some early signs in Eastern Europe, Latin America and China (Newman and Kenworthy, 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r1354|1354]]</sup> . New research indicates that peak car is now also underway in China (Gao and Newman, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1355|1355]]</sup> .

China’s rapid urban motorization was a result of strong economic growth, fast urban development and the prosperity of the Chinese automobile industry (Gao et al., 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r1356|1356]]</sup> . However, recent data (Gao and Newman, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1357|1357]]</sup> (expressed as a percentage of daily trips) suggest the first signs of a break in the growth of car use along with the growth in mass transit, primarily the expansion of Metro systems (see Box 4.9, Figure 1).

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====== Box 4.9. Figure 1 ======

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==== The modal split data in Beijing between 1986 and 2014. Source: (Gao and Newman, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1358|1358]]</sup> . ====

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Chinese urban fabrics, featuring traditional dense linear forms and mixed land use, favour mass transit systems over automobiles (Gao and Newman, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1359|1359]]</sup> . The data show that the decline in car use did not impede economic development, but the growth in vehicle kilometres of travel (VKT) has decoupled absolutely from GDP as shown in Box 4.9, Figure 2 below.

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