Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-2 (section)

==== Transport sector indicators by mode in 2050 (IEA, 2017a). ====

Share of energy consumption, biofuel consumption, CO <sub>2</sub> emissions, and reduction of energy consumption and CO <sub>2</sub> emissions from 2014. (CO <sub>2</sub> emissions are well-to-wheel emissions, including the emission during the fuel production.), LDV: light duty vehicle, HDV: heavy duty vehicle.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! rowspan="2"|
! colspan="3"| Share of Each Mode (%)
! colspan="2"| Reduction from 2014 (%)
|-
! Energy
! Biofuel
! CO <sub>2</sub>
! Energy
! CO <sub>2</sub>
|-
| LDV
| 36
| 17
| 30
| 51
| 81
|-
| HDV
| 33
| 35
| 36
| 8
| 56
|-
| Rail
| 6
| –
| –1
| –136
| 107
|-
| Aviation
| 12
| 28
| 14
| 56
|-
| Shipping
| 17
| 21
| 26
| 29
|}

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In road transport, incremental vehicle improvements (including engines) are relevant, especially in the short to medium term. Hybrid electric vehicles are also instrumental to enabling the transition from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles, especially plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Electrification is a powerful measure to decarbonize short-distance vehicles (passenger cars and two and three wheelers) and the rail sector. In road freight transport (trucks), systemic improvements (e.g., in supply chains, logistics, and routing) would be effective measures in conjunction with efficiency improvement of vehicles. Shipping and aviation are more challenging to decarbonize, while their demand growth is projected to be higher than other transport modes. Both modes would need to pursue highly ambitious efficiency improvements and use of low-carbon fuels. In the near and medium term, this would be advanced biofuels while in the long term it could be hydrogen as direct use for shipping or an intermediate product for synthetic fuels for both modes (IEA, 2017a) <sup>[[#fn:r428|428]]</sup> .

The share of low-carbon fuels in the total transport fuel mix increases to 10% and 16% by 2030 and to 40% and 58% by 2050 in 1.5°C-overshoot pathways from IAMs and the IEA-B2DS pathway, respectively. The IEA-B2DS scenario is on the more ambitious side, especially in the share of electricity. Hence, there is wide variation among scenarios, including the IAM pathways, regarding changes in the transport fuel mix over the first half of the century. As seen in Figure 2.23, the projections of energy consumption, CO <sub>2</sub> emissions and carbon intensity are quite different between IAM and ETP scenarios. These differences can be explained by more weight on efficiency improvements and avoid/shift decreasing energy consumption, and the higher share of biofuels and electricity accelerating the speed of decarbonization in ETP scenarios. Although biofuel consumption and electric vehicle sales have increased significantly in recent years, the growth rates projected in these pathways would be unprecedented and far higher than has been experienced to date.

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====== Figure 2.23 ======

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